Tuesday, 5 December 2017

Prognosis of winter for in Lithuania, US and Canary Islands in 2017-2018



While I was working on this article, the snow actually started falling down. However, better now than never, I would like to present you my annual predictions of the winter weather for Lithuania, US and the Canary Islands in 2017-2018.

Every year, my colleague Vidmantas J. hunts down a wild boar (wild pig) and by looking at that boar’s spleen, we can guess what kind of winter that year is going to be. The older the boar, the more accurate the guess is. Our previous guesses for 2015/16 and 2016/17 winters were correct.

This November, Vidmantas caught a three-year-old boar; therefore, the prediction is not accurate yet. We will be able to confirm our predictions when he will catch an old one.


I would like to remind you, that weather of the upcoming winter is predicted by boar’s spleen, caught in the late autumn. This years’ spleen was long, around 40 cm, thin (5 cm), thicker in two places (up to 6 cm) within the first part of the spleen (figure 1).



Figure 1. Boar’s spleen drawn by Vidmantas

Vidmantas can guess the length of upcoming winter by the length of the spleen; and by the width – how cold it is going to be. Vidmantas thinks that winter is going to be warm and the first frost together with snow will be in December. I would like to correct Vidmantas’ predictions by saying that the width of the spleen actually represents the amount of snow, as I think that to the boar, the important thing is the amount of snow, because it needs to find food in winter. Therefore, I guess that in central Lithuania, the winter of 2017/18 will be long but there will not be a lot of snow. The biggest snowfall could be in December and January. Therefore, this winter will not be that much different from the last three ones.
However, there might be days that are freezing cold, without snow.

Like I have said last year, if there is no snow and it is warm, then the biggest snowfall will be in North America and vice versa. It is because the air pressure above the North Pole is hanging on Earth like a cap. So, the place where that cap has moved to will be cold, but the other side will be warm. That is why I believe that this year, winter in North America will be with significantly more snow and very cold – like the two last ones in there.

By the way, I have also noticed if the winter in Lithuania is warm, then it will be raining in Canary Islands. That is why I guess the winter in Canary Islands will be very rainy.

So, all is left to do is wait until the spring and see, whether I have guessed right.

Other predictions:


Older predictions:




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