While
I was working on this article, the snow actually started falling down. However,
better now than never, I would like to present you my annual predictions of the winter
weather for Lithuania, US and
the Canary Islands in 2017-2018.
Every
year, my colleague Vidmantas J. hunts down a wild boar (wild pig) and by looking at that boar’s
spleen, we can guess what kind of winter that year is going to be. The older
the boar, the more accurate the guess is. Our previous guesses for 2015/16 and
2016/17 winters were correct.
This
November, Vidmantas caught a three-year-old boar; therefore, the prediction is
not accurate yet. We will be able to confirm our predictions when he will catch
an old one.
I
would like to remind you, that weather of the upcoming winter is predicted by
boar’s spleen, caught in the late autumn. This years’ spleen was long, around
40 cm, thin (5 cm), thicker in two places (up to 6 cm) within the first part of
the spleen (figure 1).
Figure
1. Boar’s spleen drawn by Vidmantas
Vidmantas
can guess the length of upcoming winter by the length of the spleen; and by the
width – how cold it is going to be. Vidmantas thinks that winter is going to be
warm and the first frost together with snow will be in December. I would like
to correct Vidmantas’ predictions by saying that the width of the spleen
actually represents the amount of snow, as I think that to the boar, the
important thing is the amount of snow, because it needs to find food in winter.
Therefore, I guess that in central Lithuania, the
winter of 2017/18 will be long but there will not be a lot of snow. The
biggest snowfall could be in December and January. Therefore, this winter will
not be that much different from the last three ones.
However,
there might be days that are freezing cold, without snow.
Like
I have said last year, if there is no snow and it is warm, then the biggest
snowfall will be in North America and vice
versa. It is because the air pressure above the North Pole is hanging on Earth
like a cap. So, the place where that cap has moved to will be cold, but the
other side will be warm. That is why I
believe that this year, winter in North America
will be with significantly more snow and very cold – like the two last ones in
there.
By
the way, I have also noticed if the winter in Lithuania
is warm, then it will be raining in Canary Islands.
That is why I guess the winter in Canary Islands will be very rainy.
So,
all is left to do is wait until the spring and see, whether I have guessed
right.
Other
predictions:
*)
https://www.delfi.lt/gyvenimas/namai/s-paltanavicius-jau-dabar-galima-speti-kokia-bus-ziema.d?id=76328509 (in Lithuanian)
*) https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/paltanavicius-atrodo-kad-tikros-ziemos-nesulauksime-iki-pat-kaledu.d?id=76527481 (in Lithuanian)
Older
predictions:
*) http://algis-dziugys.blogspot.lt/2016/11/kokia-bus-2016-2017-metu-ziema.html (in Lithuanian)
2017-11-29
Original post in Lithuanian: http://algis-dziugys.blogspot.lt/2017/11/kokia-bus-2017-2018-metu-ziema.html
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