Prognosis of winter for in Lithuania, US and Canary Islands in 2019-2020

It looks like last year guess about 2018-2019 winter was pretty accurate. Just like it said, the winter in Lithuania was almost without any snow and in the U.S. the winter was harsh with the temperatures dropping really low.

Now we will try to make a guess for the upcoming winter.

To remind you, the winter guessing is being made from boar (wild pig) spleen and, more specifically, it has to be an older boar. Upcoming winter is guessed from a spleen from the boar which was hunted in the late fall. The length of the spleen tells how long the winter is going to last and the width – how cold it’s going to be. I make corrections to the hunters’ guesses thinking that the width of the spleen tells how much snow it’s going to fall instead of how cold it’s going to be; the reason behind it is that, in my understanding, it’s more important for the boar to get to the food buried deeply under snow, rather than getting through the cold itself.

Three-year-old boar hunted by Vidmantas in the end of November. The spleen was pretty long 38 centimeters with broadening in the first 1/3 of the spleen up to 6.5 centimeters and then getting really thin at the end:

According to hunter Vidmantas and with my correction, the winter in Middle Lithuania is going to be long but we will only get snow in the beginning, from around December 10^th-20^th to January end. That’s it. Later on, there will be no snow (or only little snow) even though the winter will stay for longer. As I mentioned previously, it doesn’t mean that it’s not going to get cold without any snow.

As I’ve guessed last year if in Lithuania there’s no snow and it’s relatively warm it means that in North America it’s the opposite. It’s like this because just like a hat on the Earth above North pole there’s a high-pressure region. Where the hat moves to, it gets cold, but on the other side it gets warmer. That’s why it’s plausible that in early December and to late January in the U.S. it’s going to be really cold with a lot of snow. 

Also, usually if we have warm winters there’s a lot of rain in Canary Islands. That’s why I guess that in late January in Canary Islands there’s going to be a lot of rain.

OK, we will see, but from other side, it is hardly believed that the prognosis will be correct, keeping in the mind weather outside: +5oC, constant wind from South and rain.

If you have any comments, ideas or know any sites to other prognosis, please leave a comment.

Original post in Lithuanian: https://algis-dziugys.blogspot.com/2019/12/kokia-bus-2019-2020-metu-ziema_75.html


Older predictions:
*)  2018-2019: https://algis-dziugys.blogspot.com/2019/01/kokia-bus-2018-2019-metu-ziema.html (in Lithuanian)


*)  2017-2018: https://algis-dziugys.blogspot.com/2017/11/kokia-bus-2017-2018-metu-ziema.html (in Lithuanian, while in English: https://algis-dziugys.blogspot.com/2017/12/prognosis-of-winter-for-in-lithuania-us.html)


*)  2016-2017: http://algis-dziugys.blogspot.lt/2016/11/kokia-bus-2016-2017-metu-ziema.html (in Lithuanian)

*)  2015-2016: http://algis-dziugys.blogspot.lt/2015/11/kokia-bus-2015-2016-metu-ziema.htm
(in Lithuanian)


Algis Džiugys, 08 December, 2019.